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2012年1月30日

A Scary Statistic

I know that many of you do not like talking about politics or the economy, but I heard a statistic the other day that really scared me. It was that:

of the money that the Japanese government spends every year, only 40% is covered by income from taxes.

In other words, more than half of all the money the government spends each year is borrowed, and it will have to be paid back with interest in the future. Apparently, Japan's debts are so huge that they make Greece's debts look like a child's pocket money!

I'm sure you have seen the news stories about Mr. Noda's plans to increase the rate of consumption tax, first to 8%, and then to 10%. As many of you know, the rate in Britain is now 20%, so his proposals seem very mild to me. However, many people are very strongly against his plans.

One of the comments I see most often is that Japanese people will accept a tax rise when the government stops wasting so much money. The problem is, of course, that the whole Japanese political system is based on employing too many government officials and paying them too much, and on spending lots of money on unnecessary construction and other projects so that government officials can do "amakudari" to those companies after they retire.

Even if you are a person who is not interested in politics or economics, I think you need to think seriously about this issue because it will affect you and your family directly. If the consumption tax is raised, everything you buy will become more expensive overnight. If your salary does not go up, that means your standard of living will fall. If you have children, the issue is even more important, because the government is running up debts that your children's generation will have to repay.

Anyway, my questions this week are:

1) Do you accept the need for consumption tax to be raised?
2) If not, what alternatives can you think of for dealing with the problem of the national debt?
3) What do you think the future holds for Japan's economy?

Look forward to hearing your thoughts.

Comments

Good morning everyone!

Thank you Panda. I got over my cold.
Anyway this topic is difficult for me.
Even if I write my opinion in Japanese.
To tell the truth , I think if I write my opinion about politics and economy I should look at look at a lot of information before I write. But I don't have much time to do it.
So, this is not the answer for about question .
But let me write my feeling about politics.
I've not believed government for a long time. I think Japan have the many problem for a long time. That's why we have had to change premier for many times. But nothing changes. I think 政治のあり方というかシステムを変えなければ、例え何人、総理大臣を変えても何も変わらないと思います。
I have to go now !

See you later !

Zim

It really is a scary statistics! Every time I think of the problem, I am very scared.

>Apparently, Japan's debts are so huge that they make Greece's debts look like a child's pocket money!

Yes, indeed! I want to know why Japanese yen is strong inspite of such huge debts.

Here is my opinion.
1) Yes. I approve of the idea consumption tax goes up to 10 percent. In many countries, tax rate is higher than Japan, so I think we have to accept it.

2) 'Amakudari' is the problem to be solved. I know a girl who worked for a company that is managed by 'amakudari' people. After a few years, she quitted it because she didn't find any benefits (or a meaning) of the company.
I also get irritated when I see unnecessary constructions, waste of money!! But my husband says public works are very important because they give jobs to many people with low income, and leads to less robbery and other crimes.

3) All the best!! (I want to say うまくいきますように!) As Zim says, we have to change something, or Japanese economy will fall.

Hello everyone!

I don't know so much about politics and economy and I rarely talk about these subjects with others, but I'll tell what I think.

1) I accept the rise of consumption tax. It is incredible for me that the budget of the government is about twice the amount of income from tax.

3) I'm afraid that Japan's economy will decline. I can find a lot of problem we have to deal with, but I can't find what will change our lives better.
Now I think that it is comfortable to live in Japan, but I'm not sure it will be also comfortable in the future.
As everyone says, I think we must to change our political system in Japan.

Hello, Mr. Barker and everyone. 

I'm writing here for the first time though I've sometimes come here to learn english and got interested in conversations among all of you.
This time I've encountered the interesting topic, which I'm really concerned about.
First of all, I'd like to thank you Mr. Barker to raise this issue for us.
Here is my opinion of your questions;

1)=Yes.
As you showed the scary statistics at the beginning, the consumption tax rate in Japan is much lower than other developed countries. Just for your information, the highest rate of VAT (Value-added tax) in some countries are as followed.
 -Germany 19%
 -France 19.6% (to be raised up to 21.2% this year)
 -Italy 21% (to be raised up to 23% this year)
 -Sweden 25%
Thinking that the quality and quantity of public services in Japan including medical insurance, employment insurance and pension for retired people are relatively good even in comparison with the above mentioned countries, it appears to me that we get too much benefit than we deserve in actual. Also I want to point out that there are many developing countries which of course can't deliver good quality of public services have higher VAT rate. For example in Thailand where I live now, people pay 7% of VAT, even there are so many people living on the streets without any social insuarance, roads are in bad condition which often cause serious car accidents, and severe floodings in every rainy season. What I want to say here is that all of public services we can access today may not be great but still good, and even maintaing this level is relied on new debt every year. People tend to think public service as free one but it's not. We need to pay a fair price.
That's why I accept the need for consumption tax to be raised. In addition, I believe it should be done as soon as possible not waiting some time till people are satisfied with results of the cut in expenditures related to politicians. It's already high time we made a reasonable decision. I'm rather disappointed by the former ruling party who hadn't been able to carry out this urgent issue though...
Furthermore, I believe it must be carried out carefully for people with low income. There is an idea of introducing VAT with a range of different rates, for example, the relatively low rate for food and other daily items and the high rate for luxury items. Refund of consumption tax can be a possible option as well.

3)
=I'm not an economist but as an ordinary Japanese, I'm afraid that Japan's economy will collapse from within if nothing changes.
Here is another scary statistic. According to a report by Cabinet Office, the population of Japan drops to 89.93 million in 2055 and 40.5% of them will be over 65 years old. 
In my opinion, we need to think what we really want from our government. I feel that people are more likely to demand sufficient amount of public services including social insurance, different from the small government we had in the past. If so, I strongly believe it's reasonable to pay more tax to secure our quality of life. But I'm not sure how other people feel about it.
Anyway, now is the time we think about our country's future and change it to a better one...

Hi David and everyone,

I don't know much about politics and economy, so please correct me if I'm wrong.
I think raising tax is inevitable considering Japanese current economic situation. The reason why so many Japanese don't agree on tax rise might be that politicians spend our tax money on their own benefits. Another problem of Japanese government is that they don't reveal facts, information etc to the public. I think if our money will spend wisely and government give us enough welfare, people would agree on tax rise. Many Japanese don't trust most politicians (including me), politicians pledge good things(promising aims) at first but they often end up failing them. In the case of Mr. Hatoyama, ex-prime minister, set out all those good manifestos but he didn't achieve most of them.

Hi Neko,

Nice to have you with us. Please drop here again if you have time.

Hi Panda,

Thank you for giving me tips to study for TOEIC. I think reading lots must be effective way to remember words ,especially for people who don't have daily opportunity to speak English, like me.
You mentioned that Royce sell breads too. I am so tempted and looked up and saw some sites showing some pictures of their breads. They look so yummy! Too bad, we can't get them outside Hokkaido.

Fumie

Hi David and everyone,

I think this is very important topic for the future in Japan. For instance, there's a possibility that we can not receive our pension after retirement.
As panda says, why Japanese yen is so strong despite of such sluggish economy? This is a bit of a mistery for us.

I will accept a tax rise but, Mr. Noda should set out a basic policy for economic measures before that. Anyway, I just want to believe that we will have a bright future in Japan.

Hi everyone.
and ponyo, nice to meet you.
I'm sorry to be late to say Hello.

Now I'm on a lunch break.
Here is my answer since I didn't answer yet.
1)Yes, I accept the idea even if I don't want to do that.
3)I can't answer now.
because , I tried to look at relevant information about this topic . The more I think politics and economy , the more complex .
僕には政治とか経済って本当に難しいです。。。
ただ普通に暮らしたいだけなのに。
そのために必要なお金を払って、それをきちんと受け取る。シンプルな事が国レベルになると何故、こんなに難しいのか。それともこれは日本だけの話なのか。うーん。すいません独り言でした。

see you later.

Zim

I was writing a comment last night and suddenly I felt sleepy so I gave up posting the comment.

This is what I write yesterday;
Hi David,

I bet you know that but this kind of thing is not my thing and I am the last person who should comment on this topic. To tell the truth, I've already given up on them. 
Anyway, here are my answers your questions;
1) Yes, as panda said, the tax rate in Japan is still lower than in many other countries, so it's ok for now.
3) I am concerned about the future. Maybe I've given up on this county, too:(

Bye for now,
amo


Hi David and everyone,

I said Yes.

Aside from the statistic that David mentioned, another survey concerning Japan's population was announced this week.( Neko showed us the result of the survey. Thanks, and nice to meet you!)

Its population has been declining; I heard that Japan's population will keep losing one million every year. The average life expectancy is supposed to be longer, so Japan is obviously heading for an aging society. It estimates, in 50 years, 1.3 working force is expected to support one elderly. 2.8 working force in 2010.
In this situation, there are a lot of problems that the government has to face and tackle with ; pension, social security, and employment and labor. How can the government decease the debt, and raise the budget?

I'm wondering what kind of alternatives other parties that oppose to ruling party's plan to raise the consumption tax having dealing these serious problems. It's a surprise that even some members of the Diet in the DPJ oppose the government plan.


Since the DPJ took the power, if I remember correctly, there are few Manifesto that the government fulfilled, so I hope PM Noda to make the drastic cut for Amakudari problem, the government bureaucracy and lots of other problems. Hmmm... I really hope so!

Hi Zim,
It's strange, but I believed you were a woman! This kind of thing could happen when you don't see in person. Now I got it!

Hi Fumie,
Good luck with the TOEIC test!

I walked to a swimming pool this afternoon. It was a 20 minutes walk. When I got out of the entrance, it was sleeting, and I regretted I should have put on a knitted cap. After swimming, I dropped by a ward library and again walked back home. It was an hour walk in all . It was really a good exercise!

Bye for now,

Anne

it's me again.

"having dealing these serious problems" should be ""have dealing with these serious problems."

Hi Anne.

I'm glad hearing I'm a woman ,though I'm hairy man. Actually this topic is difficult for me. But I just wanted to try to think about that. But, I also have never been good at figures.
So I get overwhelmed when I see huge figures or percentage.

By the way , I found a chocolate potato chip named 贅沢ショコラ made by calbee.
Did you know that. I will try it today.

incidentally , I'm sorry my English is poor and also my Japanese is poor.

See you later.

Zim.

Hi everyone, I'm new here.

"I'm sure you have seen the news stories about Mr. Noda's plans to increase the rate of consumption tax, first to 8%, and then to 10%. As many of you know, the rate in Britain is now 20%, so his proposals seem very mild to me. "

Well, I don't think VAT and Shohi-zei are comparable. In the UK (and many other countries), necessities of life such as daily foods, water, books, children clothes, public transport are zero-rated.

I'd caught a cold since the New Year's day. I've just got over it. I am brest-feeding my daughter, so I tried not to take any medication. But it was a very sticky. I ended up to ask my doctor to give me some medication, and my fever has gone in some hours after I took medicines!! I should have seen him early!

Anyway, as this week's topic, raising a consumption tax could become a burden to our households. Anyone wants to avoid it, if we could. Especially in this economic stuation we cannot expect to get higher wages. If things become more expensive by raising the tax, people would hold off or practically cannot buy anything, which may cause more severe depression. If comsuption tax rate would be increased, the government should focus on stimulating the economy much more than ever before.

I know people pay higher comsumption tax in some countries. We can learn how they deal with and overcome problems which high tax rate causes, but we shouldn't just follow them without a thourough discussion.

Hi everyone,

I'm in Sapporo again. I slept in my van last night, but I'm in a hotel now. Earlier this evening, I went to Hoheikyo Onsen near Jozankei. When I went into the changing rooms, there was only one other man in there. I was quite surprised to see that both of his arms were completely covered in tatoos. When I went into the bath area, I saw another three men just the same, but one of them had tatoos all over his back as well. I thought that onsens banned people with tatoos, but I guess not.

Hi David,

We've often heard that onsens banned people with tatoos. However, I think it depends on customers, becasue if they are not feared, it's no problem.

By the way, you wrote 'there was only one other man in there.'

The first 'there’ is a pronoun. The second ’there' is an adverb or a noun, I soppose. But the sentence looks a little strange. Could you explain the sentence gramatically?

Hi David,

I wonder if the people of Onsen knew these men have tatoos. I think if they knew that they would stop them to use the bath. If I was in your situation, I would get out of there immediately because I would be frightened.

Fumie

Hi David and everyone,

The statistic scared me too! I knew Japan has a large debt, but I didn't know it was that serious.

Here are my thoughts on the questions.

1) Do you accept the need for consumption tax to be raised?

Yes, but the government should stop wasting money and change the old systems FIRST.

2) If not, what alternatives can you think of for dealing with the problem of the national debt?

As I said above, I will accept the tax rise if they stop wasting money, but I don't think it's enough. They should reduce the number of Diet members and their salary, and elderly politicians should retire like people in a company. They cannot make up for the huge debt just by raising taxes, let alone borrowing more money. They need to learn how to make ends meet, or we will go into bankrupt.

3) What do you think the future holds for Japan's economy?

Hmm..., I can't think of any good things at the moment, but I really hope Japan's economy gets better soon.

Hi Neko and nao,
Nice to have you with us:)

Tomo

Hi, David

Did you ski in Niseko, or Kokusai? How was your new pairs of skies?
Wow, you met men with tatoos in onsen? It is true that they are banning tatooed people in most onsens, and if so, we can see a Harigami ( a notice) saying that on the wall in the changing room. Still, sometimes there are, and we upset when we happen to meet them.

By the way, I have a grammatical question, too.
You wrote, 'I saw another three men', but I thought 'another' originally means 'an other' and it must be followed by a singular noun. Will you explain it, please?

Hi, I Love Nutella
You had had fever for more than a month?! It must have been very hard for you!! Good to know you are better now. Please have a good rest with your baby!

Hi Gussan,

As for your question, let me share my ideas with you.

>'there was only one other man in there'

As you know, you don't use a preposition before an adverb, but you can say "in there/here" if you are talking about a particular place like a room. I think David used "in there" because he was talking about particular rooms(=the changing rooms), so the sentence could be "There was only one other man in the changing rooms." In this case, I think the second 'there' is used like a pronoun.

Sorry if I got your question wrong!

Tomo

PS David - As you said, onsens ban people with tattoos, but it's difficult for people working at onsens to stop them. Anyway, I hope you are having a nice time there.

Hi Panda,

I think "another" can be followed by plural as well. For example;

Teacher: Have you finished?
Student: Not yet. I need another 5 minutes.

Hope that helps.

Tomo

HI, panda

I hadn't had fever all the time for one month, but sometime I had fever for 5days. One day, I felt like my fever's gone, so I took my temperature, and it was still 38.6 degree. How shocked!

I took a blood test and it showed my cold was just common one, not influenza. Maybe I had a weakened immune system...

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